Is Nickel Price Rising or Falling Recently? Full Analysis of Market Trend and Core Driving Factors

1. Recent Nickel Price Trend: Overall Weak Oscillation With Mild Monthly Downward Shift

1.1 International Market: LME Nickel Rallied Then Retreated, Returning to Late-July Low Range

Since early August 2026, London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel prices have reversed the upward oscillation seen in late July, showing a pattern of rally followed by retreat with a downward shift in the price center. As of August 14, the three-month LME nickel closed at USD 16,810 per tonne, down around 2.9% from the early-August peak of USD 17,305 per tonne. It has edged down 0.12% over the past month but remains 10.63% higher than the same period last year.

A notable 2.45% single-day drop occurred on August 6, the most significant market move this month, with prices dipping to USD 16,565 per tonne — the lowest level since early July. Since then, prices have maintained weak oscillation within the range of USD 16,600–17,000 per tonne.

1.2 Domestic Market: SHFE Nickel Followed Suit, Range-Bound Amid Supply-Demand Tug of War

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the main nickel contract moved largely in sync with the international market, staying under overall pressure. By mid-August, the main SHFE nickel contract closed at around RMB 127,000 per tonne, down about 2.6% from the early-month high, trading mainly between RMB 125,000 and 135,000 per tonne.

Spot prices moved in line with the futures market. The average price of SMM 1# electrolytic nickel stayed in the range of RMB 129,000–130,000 per tonne. Downstream buyers mostly purchased on demand, resulting in generally light trading. The market remains locked in a tug of war between expectations of loose supply and phased cost support.

2. Three Core Drivers Behind the Downward Pressure on Nickel Prices

2.1 Supply Side: Eased Indonesian Quota Expectations Shattered the Supply Shortage Narrative

This is the most direct trigger for the latest nickel price decline. Previously, the market widely expected that Indonesia’s 2026 nickel ore RKAB mining quota would be tightened, which had supported nickel ore and nickel prices to stay relatively firm. However, news emerged in early August that large mining concessions in Indonesia had received additional nickel ore mining quotas, with the annual allowance for a single mine jumping sharply from 12 million tonnes to 37 million tonnes — an increment of 25 million tonnes.

Although Indonesian authorities clarified that the total annual mining volume will not be fully liberalized and the additional quotas are only targeted at smelters facing raw material shortages, the news directly broke the market’s consensus on nickel ore supply shortage. Market sentiment shifted quickly, driving a sharp correction in nickel prices.

Meanwhile, Philippine mines have continued to ramp up exports since the end of the rainy season, resulting in ample nickel ore supply and weakening ore price momentum. Domestic refined nickel output remains at a high level, and inflows of overseas intermediate products and ferronickel add to the supply. Social inventories and exchange warehouse receipts stay at historically elevated levels. The overall relatively ample supply side continues to cap rebound room on the price front.

2.2 Demand Side: Obvious Traditional Off-Peak Season Features, Weak Downstream Consumption Support

Lack of stronger-than-expected demand pull is the core internal reason why nickel prices cannot sustain an uptrend.

• Stainless steel sector: As the largest end consumer of nickel, the sector is currently in its traditional off-peak consumption season. Demand recovery from downstream real estate, home appliances and manufacturing is sluggish. Stainless steel finished product inventories remain under pressure, and steel mill margins have narrowed notably. Mills adopt a cautious attitude toward nickel-bearing raw materials, restocking only as needed without large-scale stockpiling demand.
• New energy sector: Demand for nickel sulfate from power batteries maintains steady growth, but the marginal pulling power is limited. There has been no explosive growth as the market expected, so its support for nickel prices is weak.

Overall, weak downstream consumption fails to form an effective demand floor, further amplifying the impact of bearish supply-side factors.

2.3 Cost and Macro Side: Falling Smelting Costs + Stronger US Dollar Exert Dual Pressure

On one hand, easing geopolitical risks have weakened cost support from the smelting side. Earlier market concerns over shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pushing up sulfur prices have faded. As geopolitical tensions cool, lower sulfur costs have directly reduced raw material expenses for nickel hydrometallurgy, eroding the cost support for nickel prices.

On the other hand, on the macro front, expectations for Fed interest rate cuts continue to cool, and the US Dollar Index remains relatively strong. Dollar-denominated commodities face overall valuation pressure, with base metals generally weak — and nickel is no exception to this macro sentiment drag.

3. Forward Outlook: Bull-Bear Tug of War to Continue, Range-Bound Pattern Likely in the Short Term

In the short term, bullish and bearish factors in the nickel market will remain in balance, with insufficient momentum for either a sharp unilateral rally or a steep decline.

• Bearish factors: The general trend of continued release of Indonesian nickel production capacity remains unchanged, and the medium-to-long-term pattern of loose supply is intact. Demand in the traditional off-peak season is unlikely to rebound notably in the short term, and downstream procurement remains cautious, lacking upward drivers.
• Supportive factors: The Indonesian RKAB quota adjustment is not a full liberalization; total annual mining volume remains under control, so the actual supply increment is smaller than the market’s panic-driven expectation. Current nickel prices are approaching the cost line of some smelters, with cost support gradually building from below, leaving limited room for further decline.

On balance, nickel prices are expected to maintain range-bound oscillation in the short term. Two key indicators deserve close attention going forward: first, the final implementation of Indonesia’s nickel ore quota policy, and second, the strength of downstream demand recovery during the traditional peak season in September.

4. Procurement and Stockpiling Recommendations for Downstream Enterprises

1. Prioritize on-demand procurement and avoid blind stockpiling With the market currently in the demand off-peak season and prices lacking sustained upward momentum, downstream enterprises are advised to procure on demand and purchase as needed, rather than hoarding raw materials blindly. This helps avoid inventory buildup and price fluctuation risks.
2. Watch key turning points and seize phased buying opportunities Track closely the start of the traditional September-October peak season demand, as well as the implementation progress of Indonesian policies. Phased restocking can be arranged at periodic lows to smooth annual procurement costs.
3. Lock in long-term stable suppliers to reduce volatility impact For enterprises with year-round nickel consumption — such as electric heating alloy and stainless steel processing firms — establishing long-term cooperation with high-quality upstream suppliers and securing stable purchase agreements can smooth price fluctuations and ensure production supply chain stability.

5. Stable Supply From Tankii: Full Range of Nickel-Based Alloys for Steady Operations

5.1 Ample Raw Material Reserves to Cushion Price Volatility

Tankii has established a sound raw material reserve and cost control system. We smooth nickel price fluctuations through long-term agreements and strategic stockpiling, ensuring price stability for our full range of nickel-based products including pure nickel wire, nichrome alloys and copper-nickel alloys. This shields customers’ production plans from the impact of sharp raw material price swings.

5.2 Full-Specification Products With Stable Delivery for Diverse Scenarios

Our product portfolio covers the full spectrum of electric heating alloys: pure nickel, nichrome, copper-nickel and FeCrAl, with wire diameters ranging from 0.015mm to 6.0mm. We support customized specifications and deep processing services. Whether for industrial heating, medical precision devices or electronic components, we deliver stable and bulk supply.

5.3 Transparent Quotation and Professional Service for Cost Optimization

We provide real-time and transparent product quotations and market references. Our technical team can offer targeted procurement and stockpiling recommendations based on customers’ consumption volume and delivery schedules, helping downstream enterprises optimize raw material costs and secure supply chain safety.

Conclusion

Nickel price movement is essentially the result of the interplay of supply, demand, macroeconomic conditions and policy factors. Under the current short-term weak oscillation pattern, there is no need to chase rallies or panic-sell excessively. A more prudent approach is to base decisions on actual production needs and maintain well-managed procurement rhythm.

As a professional supplier of nickel-based electric heating alloys, Tankii will continue to monitor raw material market changes and safeguard downstream customers’ steady production with stable product quality and reliable delivery capability. If you have procurement needs or market inquiries regarding pure nickel wire, nichrome alloys and other products, welcome to contact the Tankii technical team for professional material solutions.